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Land Market Update | Denton County

Denton County, TX Large Land Sales: 2023 Reflections and 2024 Market Revival


The Denton County land and ranch sales market, especially for large parcels of 50 acres or more, experienced a significant drop in 2023 from 2022 levels and is showing signs of a rebound in the first quarter of 2024. This update delves into the factors contributing to these changes, including the dramatic rise in interest rates that marked the end of the era of "free money," and provides a forward-looking perspective based on early 2024 market indicators.


2023 Market Dynamics:

2023 was a challenging year for the Denton County land market, largely due to the dramatic increase in interest rates which significantly impacted buyer affordability and investment strategies. The total transaction volume experienced a sharp decline, dropping from over $32 million in 2022 to just $24 million in 2023. This downturn reflects the broader national trend and the direct impact of tightening financial conditions on real estate transactions. We also saw a large number of properties that were listed at what we call "make me sell" prices - this was not unique to Denton County but reflected a disconnect between what sellers thought their property was worth vs. what buyers were able to pay for the property.


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Early 2024 Market Trends:

In contrast, the first quarter of 2024 shows signs of market rebound, with transaction volumes rising to over $7.5 million. This resurgence is partly attributed to a stabilization in interest rates and a more optimistic economic outlook, factors that have begun to restore confidence among buyers and investors.


Economic and Demographic Influences:

- Interest Rates: The stabilization of interest rates in 2024 has played a crucial role in the market's gradual recovery. As the financial landscape becomes more predictable, investors and potential landowners are finding firmer ground to plan their acquisitions. There is also an expectation that interest rates will drop in 2024, making the purchase and development of properties more appealing to buyers.

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- Economic Outlook: A generally better economic outlook for 2024 has further contributed to this positive shift. With the economy showing signs of resilience, the sentiment among those looking to invest in or purchase land in Denton County is improving. Inflation has slowed (although still increasing) and the economy is stronger than what was expected in 2023.


- Population and Business Growth: Texas, and the DFW metroplex in particular, continue to benefit from a significant influx of people and companies. This demographic trend is bolstering demand for residential and commercial properties and impacting the market for large parcels of land, as these areas are increasingly sought after for development and recreational purposes. There is a shortage of "development-ready" properties on the market. Development-ready properties are those that have the necessary utilities on-site or readily available with sufficient capacity. Many cities and rural water districts are struggling to increase capacity to stay ahead of development.


Looking Ahead:

The early indicators of 2024 suggest a period of adjustment and potential growth for the Denton County large land sales market. While the market is rebounding from the lows of 2023, buyers and sellers are encouraged to remain cautious but optimistic. The continued influx of people and businesses to the area, coupled with stabilizing economic factors, presents a promising outlook for those invested in the Denton County land market.


After a year marked by challenges, the Denton County large land sales market is showing signs of revitalization. With interest rates stabilizing and the economic outlook improving, combined with the ongoing population and business growth in the DFW metroplex, the future appears bright for land transactions in the region.


Are you looking at land in Denton County? Maybe you're considering another spot in the North Texas area? We specialize in land & ranch sales and would be happy to guide you through the land-buying process.

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